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F1 2024 Season

The future of F1: ones to watch

Following Oliver Bearman’s brilliant performance at the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, let’s explore other potential talent that could enter Formula 1 over the next few years. 

Young talent

A consistent theme among these young drivers is their participation in FIA Formula feeder series, such as Formula 2 and Formula 3. Here, drivers race in equal machinery for 10 (F3) and 14 (F2) weekends. These take place at F1 weekends, with coverage on both Sky Sports and F1 TV. Often, due to the uniform cars, these championships are much closer than F1 as it is based purely off race-craft, strategy, and the pitstops. For those missing proper competition in F1, these championships are a great watch. 

Oliver Bearman

At this time, 18-year old Bearman seems like one of the best choices for an F1 seat when considering new emerging driver talent. As one of Ferrari’s reserve drivers, scoring points during his F1 debut has boosted his reputation among F1 teams and fans alike. However, this early in the F2 season, it is naïve to say that one good race is enough to guarantee a seat in F1, especially for 2025. 

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli, another young driver at just 17 years old, has been in the headlines recently. The media have discussed Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari for the 2025 season, reporting that Mercedes were reluctant to sign a long-term contract with Hamilton so that a space was available in their team for Antonelli. As the main star of the Mercedes Junior Programme, being dubbed the ‘next Max Verstappen’, Mercedes have been very keen to quicken Antonelli’s driver development. He has skipped F3 and is competing in F2 this season. With Mercedes’ connection to Williams, this could be a potential seat for Antonelli in the coming F1 seasons.

Zane Malony

Malony, 20, is the current leader of the Formula 2 championship. As a newly signed Sauber Academy driver, his exposure and potential has been advertised across the paddock. However, doing well in F2, and even winning the championship, has proven to not be enough to secure an F1 seat. There is a large queue of drivers, some with actual F1 experience, in front of Malony. Even with success in F2, it cannot be said that an F1 seat is guaranteed for him in the future.  

Liam Lawson

A few months ago, Lawson was in a similar situation to that of Bearman now. As a Red Bull Academy driver and reserve driver, Lawson replaced AlphaTauri (now RB) driver, Daniel Ricciardo, for five races when Ricciardo was out with a hand injury. During this period, 22-year old Lawson put in a string of solid performances, staying on par with his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, throughout and scoring points for the team. Previously, Lawson has raced in Formula feeder series and DTM. He is currently an F1 reserve driver for Red Bull and RB. Due to his impressive performance in the AlphaTauri, there is ongoing speculation as to whether Lawson has an F1 contract for 2025, although this is still unconfirmed. 

Jack Doohan

Doohan is a familiar face from Sky Sports’ F1 coverage. The 21-year old is not driving this season, electing to put all of his energy into the reserve driver role at Alpine. It is rumoured that he declined a seat in IndyCar for this season to prioritise F1. Doohan has great access to the team, which could help him in securing a seat in the future.  

Liam Lawson, Mick Schumacher, and Felipe Drugovich. (Image Credit: PlanetF1)
Honourable mentions

Mick Schumacher

As the current Mercedes F1 reserve driver and World Endurance championship driver with Alpine, we could see an F1 return for Schumacher. Schumacher has a strong case for an F1 seat: his established relationship with the aforementioned F1 teams; the potential link to Williams through the Mercedes connection; and, his former F1 experience driving for Haas. Despite not being talent straight out of a feeder series, he still has a chance at a seat for 2025. However, the challenges he faced during his time with Haas, the potential damage to his reputation within F1, and his failure to secure a seat for 2023 and 2024 may harm his chances in returning to F1.

Robert Shwartzman

It seems that the ship has sailed for Shwartzman, despite his position as one of Ferrari’s F1 reserve drivers. At the current time, it looks like Bearman would be chosen over him for any potential future Ferrari F1 seat. However, his previous strong performance in F2 may still work in his favour for other potential F1 seats.

Jamie Chadwick

As W Series winner and Williams F1 development driver, Chadwick is in the pool of potential drivers looking for a seat. Previously, she has raced in several Asian and European Formula feeder series. However, despite positive progression for women in motorsport with the recent addition of F1 Academy as an official F1 feeder series, there has not been a female Formula 1 driver who has competed in a grand prix since 1976. While a challenging issue to overcome, Chadwick has excellent driving experience and an impressive performance record to aid her chances and make her a strong candidate for F1.

Felipe Drugovich

Becoming Aston Martin’s reserve driver, Drugovich has close access to a current F1 team. Having won the 2023 FIA F2 championship, he attends F1 grands prix as a part of the team’s driver development programme. The only threats to Drugovich’s F1 chances are his lack of a drive this season in any series, and some controversial comments made by Drugovich regarding current Aston Martin driver, Lance Stroll, who is also the son of the team’s owner. 

Unconfirmed seats

There are still many unconfirmed seats for the 2025 Formula 1 grid.

Alpine

Both seats are free. Neither Frenchman at Alpine is contracted beyond the end of this season. With Alpine’s current bad form both on and off track, it would not be surprising if neither Esteban Ocon nor Pierre Gasly chose to stay beyond the end of this season. 

RB

Both seats are free. Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda only have contracts until the end of this season. With the current debate over the second Red Bull seat, it is very unclear who – if either of the two current drivers – will re-sign for the 2025 season. Most of the discussions surrounding a new driver signing for RB or Red Bull involve Lawson.

Kick Sauber

Both seats are free. Neither Valtteri Bottas nor Zhou Guanyu have contacts to stay with Sauber for the 2025 season. 

Haas F1 Team

Both seats are free. Newly appointed Haas team principal, Ayao Komatsu, has a tough decision to make concerning the retention of current drivers, Nico Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen. Due to the team’s link with Ferrari, it looks likely that if Bearman were to get an F1 seat for the 2025 season, it would be with Haas. 

Aston Martin

One seat is free. Fernando Alonso’s contract with Aston Martin runs out at the end of this season, meaning his seat will be free for 2025. Lance Stroll’s contract has no confirmed end date, but it can be assumed that he will still be with the team for the 2025 season due to his father’s role in the team’s management. Stroll’s contract may only expire if his father were to ever move away from the team. 

Williams

One seat is free. With his current performance in F1, it looks increasingly unlikely that Williams will extend Logan Sargeant’s contract for a third year, meaning that his seat may become free. Due to Williams’ relationship with Mercedes, this seat could be an option for Mercedes’ junior driver, Antonelli. According to his contract, Alex Albon will be at Williams until at least the end of 2025. 

Red Bull Racing

One seat is free. The controversial second seat at Red Bull is free for 2025, with Sergio Perez only confirmed to be contracted until the end of this season. Max Verstappen is contracted until 2028. 

Mercedes

One seat is free. Following the unexpected news of Hamilton’s move to Ferrari for the 2025 season, one of the two seats under Toto Wolff’s leadership has become free for next year. However, this second seat is beginning to look similar to that of Red Bull, as Mercedes have openly invested in George Russell as their future number one driver following Hamilton’s departure. 

Ferrari

No free seats. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton are contracted with Ferrari for the 2025 F1 season.

McLaren

No free seats. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri both have contracts for next year’s F1 season.

While those are the 2025 seats currently available according to drivers’ contracts, the F1 ‘silly season’ always throws up some surprises. Drivers often have exit clauses in contracts – like Hamilton, who had signed a contract extension with Mercedes before switching to Ferrari for 2025. Therefore, anything is possible on the F1 grid.

With such an immense talent pool of young drivers, both currently or previously racing in Formula feeder series, the F2 and F3 championships are great places to see young talent. These drivers compete to try to gain experience and prove themselves worthy of a chance in Formula 1. Both championships continue as support for the F1 at Melbourne on 22nd March for the 2024 Australian Grand Prix.

Who would you like to see in F1 in the next few years? Which teams do you think will take a chance on new talent? Leave a comment below.

Written by Alexandra.

Feature Image Credit: F2

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Other Motorsport Categories

The F2 to IndyCar Pipeline: Junior Stars Shine in the States

Every year 22 drivers take the stage as members of the F2 championship with a similar set of ambitions: to win and get the attention of the powers that be in F1.

The growing issue with these ambitions is that they are becoming less likely to pan out. With driver careers lasting longer than ever, the amount of open seats remains lower than the amount of talent available to fill them. Of the last 4 F2 champions, only 2 are currently active drivers in F1 and neither one made it immediately after winning their respective championship, and while 50% isn’t staggering, that is only a fraction of the drivers that graduated F2 without reaching the next level.

Source: The Straits Times

This inability to find a seat in F1 has caused the young talents of junior formulas to branch out to other series around the world, some find themselves behind the wheel of prototypes in WEC or in FE, but today we focus on one pipeline that is growing in popularity, the IndyCar pipeline.

IndyCar is quickly growing into a premier open-wheel series, the close quarters racing and diverse track layouts make it appealing to drivers from all around the world wanting to try something new, and recently more junior Formula and F1 alumni have migrated to the IndyCar scene.

Source: Autosport.com

Drivers like Grosjean and Ericsson were both full timers in F1 that have seen success in IndyCar with Ericsson winning the Indy 500 in 2022 and Grosjean achieving multiple road course podiums. Young F1 prospects like Callum Ilott and Christian Lundgaard have also made the move to IndyCar and have found solid results despite being in less accomplished teams.

With most F1 drivers transitioning to IndyCar seeing success, more prospects or even veterans on the way out may look to the series as a way to revitalize their careers, making IndyCar a series to watch even more now than ever.

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Technical Posts

107%: The number for juniors to look to in F1

You might have caught a glimpse of the timing screens mentioning 107% time sometime. What is it exactly? Continue ahead to find out.

Timing screen in the Haas garage in 2017

Why?

To start off, this rule was brought in place to have slower such that they are dangerous out of the race.

Another reason has been to avoid having teams coming with underdeveloped cars just to have the opportunity to showcase the sponsors and hence have the drivers and cars on the grid which resemble the platform F1 aims to stand for.

|> The Arrows team, French GP 2002. The team were low on funds and participated in qualifying to avoid fines.

What is it?

In 2018, the rule was amended to not be considered during unsuitable conditions (rain) 

  • In the three-part qualifying session we have now, the 5 slowest cars in Q1 have to set a time under 107% of the fastest laptime in that session.
  • If a driver fails to set a suitable time, he/she would be allowed to race if he/she showed pace during any of the practice sessions.

Let’s take an example,

French GP 2021

Drivers eliminated in Q1: 

LAT = 1:33.062s 

RAI = 1:33.354s

MAZ = 1:33.554s 

STR = 2:12.584s 

TSU = No time (Crashed before setting a time)

Fastest time in Q1: 1:31.001

So the 107% time was: 1:37.371

For Lance Stroll, 

The times posted by him during the practice sessions allowed him to enter the race, starting from the back of the grid.

Source: racefans.net

For Yuki Tsunoda, 

Following his shunt, the team needed to change some gearbox components. Since he was going to start from the end of the grid due to his qualifying, taking the new parts put him for a Pit lane start.

How the rule book says it,

Sprint Qualifying Special

Source: https://www.fia.com/regulation/category/110 (Sporting Regulations)

Stats caused by this rule:

(Since its reintroduction in 2011)

  • Most number of drivers failing to set suitable time: Hungary 2016 (11 drivers)
  • Most number of infractions by a driver: Narain Karthikeyan (3 instances)
  • Drivers currently on the grid having been hit by this rule, (Number of instances)
  1. Daniel Ricciardo (2)
  2. Carlos Sainz Jr. (1)
  3. Max Verstappen (2)
  4. Sergio Perez (1)
  5. Valtteri Bottas (1)
  6. Lance Stroll (1)

Note: Why not Yuki? Yuki didn’t set a time in Q1 so he was not considered.

Other series do this too?

Yes, many series have similar rules. Even two-wheels have this, with MotoGP having a 107% time cutoff.

Formula E (110% rule), IndyCar (105% rule), NASCAR (115% rule)

The Monaco 2021 F2 weekend had a controversial infraction of this rule.

Alessio Deledda had a best time of 1:27.744s. The fastest lap during that session was Robert Schwartzman 1:21.403s. A difference of 6.341s that breached the 107% cutoff.

However the team were allowed to race citing mechanical issues, which wasn’t revealed when the decision of allowing Deledda was declared. The stewards taking time to confirm the team’s explanations.

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